Of 1,568 people sampled by the National Statistical Office, 1,515 completed an initial interview, 785 were invited and 669 deliberated in Ulaanbaatar on 29–30 April 2017. Support for a two-chamber parliament fell from 61% to 30% and for a single six-year presidential term from 61.5% to 41%.[1][2]
Mongolia's national Deliberative Poll on constitutional amendments (2017)
Under a 2017 law requiring a Deliberative Poll before Parliament considers constitutional amendments, 669 randomly sampled Mongolians deliberated for a weekend in Ulaanbaatar on proposed changes. Support for a second chamber collapsed; the 2019 amendment dropped it but adopted a single presidential term the poll had cooled on.
- Location
- Reference point: Government Palace, Ulaanbaatar, where participants deliberated; the sample was national
- Operating since
- 2017
- Governance
- Deliberative / sortition
- Legal status
- Recognised
- Economy
- Not applicable
- Autonomy level
- Program within an existing state
- Uses AI in governance
- No
Background
Mongolia's 1992 constitution, adopted after the end of one-party rule, created a semi-presidential system with a directly elected president and a unicameral parliament, the State Great Khural. By the 2010s frequent changes of government, disputes between president and prime minister, and concern about corruption had produced repeated proposals for constitutional reform. Amending the constitution required a three-quarters majority in Parliament or a referendum.
In 2015 the capital, Ulaanbaatar, ran a city-wide Deliberative Poll with technical support from Stanford University's Center for Deliberative Democracy (now the Deliberative Democracy Lab). Encouraged by that experience, and after contacts between the Stanford political scientist James Fishkin and the MP Gombojav Zandanshatar, Parliament in 2017 passed a Law on Deliberative Polling. The OECD describes it as defining the method and its principles, the composition of an advisory committee, the procedure, and funding, and requiring a Deliberative Poll before Parliament can consider constitutional amendments, as well as on some local development fund and urban planning projects; residents can also petition for one at capital and district level.
How it is governed
- Sampling. The National Statistical Office drew a random sample of households within randomly selected geographic strata and then one adult per household. Of 1,568 people selected, 1,515 (96%) completed an initial interview. In line with the law, more than half of those interviewed — 785 — were invited to deliberate, and 669 (85% of invitees) came to the Government Palace in Ulaanbaatar for the weekend of 29–30 April 2017.
- Agenda. Two cross-party parliamentary working groups developed the initial agenda; a briefing book set out arguments for and against 18 proposals, of which six major amendments were the focus.
- Process. Participants alternated between moderated small groups and plenary sessions in which they questioned competing experts and politicians, then answered the same questionnaire as at recruitment. An advisory group of civic leaders had final authority over the process and reported results to Parliament. The Statistical Office conducted the survey work; Stanford provided technical advice. Domestic and international observers attended.
Economy and public goods
The law provides for state funding of Deliberative Polls; the sources reviewed for this entry do not give the cost of the 2017 poll. Its product was a public good of a specific kind: a measured comparison between what a representative sample thought before and after informed discussion, published for legislators and the public.
Conflict and disputes
The results cut against several proposals backed by the major parties. Support for creating a two-chamber parliament fell from 61% to 30%; agreement that a second chamber would provide effective oversight fell from 70% to 38%, while agreement that both chambers would be controlled by the same parties rose from 43% to 59%. Support for a single six-year presidential term fell from 61.5% to 41%. Indirect election of the president found little support before or after. Support for giving the prime minister authority to appoint and dismiss cabinet members rose from 57% to 73%, and nine of the ten highest-rated proposals after deliberation concerned transparency, accountability and protections for the civil service and judiciary.
The process was contested. The Mongolian constitutional scholar Munkhsaikhan Odonkhuu published a critique, which Fishkin and Zandanshatar rebutted; and the political context shifted quickly: the ruling party's candidate lost the July 2017 presidential election and the prime minister later lost a no-confidence vote, delaying reform.
Outcomes
The advisory group reported to Parliament, and the subsequent draft included the prime minister's power over the cabinet and civil service accountability provisions while excluding indirect presidential election and a second chamber. Parliament eventually amended the constitution by a two-thirds vote on 14 November 2019. The amendment strengthened the prime minister, limited the president to a single six-year term — a change that had lost support in the poll — and shifted judicial appointments. Parliament's chairman, Zandanshatar, later wrote that the poll was a critical part of the consultation and that most major changes traced back to issues citizens had discussed.
A second national Deliberative Poll, with nearly 800 participants, met in February 2023; its participants strongly supported expanding Parliament and a mixed electoral system, and the 2023 amendment raised the number of seats from 76 to 126.
Lessons for institution design
- Legal triggers create routine. Tying deliberation to the amendment procedure itself made it a required step rather than a favour granted by a government.
- Advisory still means selective. Parliament followed the poll where it agreed (dropping the second chamber) and departed from it elsewhere (the single presidential term); without a duty to give reasons, the selection is hard to scrutinise.
- Measured opinion change is persuasive. Large shifts after deliberation, such as the collapse of support for bicameralism, gave legislators evidence that a proposal would not survive public scrutiny.
- Researcher-advocates should be read critically. Much of the published account comes from the method's designer and a sponsoring legislator; independent evaluation is thinner.
Further reading
Timeline
- 2015Ulaanbaatar holds a city-wide Deliberative Poll with Stanford support, which leads Parliament to consider a deliberative polling law. [S4]Established
- Apr 2017669 randomly sampled citizens deliberate on proposed amendments at the Government Palace in Ulaanbaatar (29–30 April). [S1]Established
- Jul 2017The ruling party's candidate loses the presidential election in July; the prime minister later loses a no-confidence vote, delaying reform. [S1]Established
- 2017Parliament passes the Law on Deliberative Polling, requiring a Deliberative Poll before it considers constitutional amendments. [S3]Established
- Nov 2019Parliament amends the constitution by a two-thirds vote (14 November), strengthening the prime minister and limiting the president to one six-year term. [S4]Established
- May 2023A second national Deliberative Poll (February) is followed by an amendment enlarging Parliament from 76 to 126 seats with a mixed electoral system. [S5]Established
Mechanisms in use
Outcomes & controversies
669 participants deliberated on 29–30 April 2017. Support for a second chamber fell from 61% to 30% and the idea was dropped; the November 2019 amendment strengthened the prime minister but also adopted a single six-year presidential term, whose support had fallen to 41%.
Post-mortem
A one-weekend legally required consultation. Its results reached Parliament through an advisory group; the eventual 2019 amendment followed some findings and not others. The law remains in force and was used again for a 2023 national poll.
Claims
Mongolia's 2017 Law on Deliberative Polling requires a Deliberative Poll before Parliament considers constitutional amendments and lets residents petition for one at capital-city and district level.[1]
How far the poll shaped the 2019 amendment is disputed: Parliament's chairman credited it with a key role, but the amendment adopted a single six-year presidential term whose support had fallen after deliberation.[1][2][3]