Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 05◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
AI-entrenched centralisation
Automated administration and surveillance concentrate power in whoever controls the systems, while weak evaluation and appeal leave errors and abuses uncorrected.
Likelihood: PlausibleThe central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.