Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 12◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s–2040s
Climate-driven federal redesign
Climate impacts, adaptation costs and climate migration force changes in how powers and money are divided between central governments, regions and river basins, producing new federal or confederal arrangements.
Likelihood: uncertainDriversUneven territorial distribution of climate damageRising adaptation and disaster-recovery costsInsurance withdrawal from high-risk areasClimate-related migration within countriesLegal innovations on rights of nature and future generations
Early indicatorsReform of disaster finance and fiscal equalisation rulesNew basin or ecosystem authorities with binding powersIntergovernmental disputes over adaptation costs in courtLegal personhood or rights for ecosystemsEnforcement of statutory duties to future generations
Claims this scenario depends onOstrom identified design principles shared by long-enduring common-pool resource institutions, including clearly defined boundaries, monitoring, graduated sanctions and low-cost conflict-resolution mechanisms.Federalism divides authority between a central and regional governments, each with a constitutionally protected domain that neither can unilaterally remove; regional units typically also share in national decision-making.Section 4 lists seven well-being goals: a prosperous, resilient, healthier and more equal Wales, a Wales of cohesive communities, of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language, and a globally responsible Wales.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.