Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 11◇ Forecast · horizon 2020s–2030s
AI-mediated deliberation as routine
AI tools for summarising, translating, clustering and facilitating discussion become a standard part of public consultation and citizens' assemblies, allowing deliberation at far larger scale but raising questions about who shapes the summaries.
Likelihood: Emerging (early signals observed)DriversLow-cost summarisation and translation by language modelsVolume of public submissions overwhelming manual analysisOpinion-clustering tools such as Pol.isProfessionalised deliberation institutionsDemand for participation beyond elections and polls
Early indicatorsOfficial rules on AI use in public consultationsAssemblies reporting AI-assisted translation, summarisation or facilitationIndependent evaluations of AI summaries for accuracy and balanceAdoption of open-source deliberation tools by governmentsParticipant challenges to AI-generated syntheses
Claims this scenario depends onDeliberative polls and citizens' assemblies select participants by random sampling so that the group resembles the wider population.vTaiwan uses Pol.is, which clusters participants' agree/disagree votes on short statements to surface points of broad consensus.France's citizens' convention on children's time, organised by the CESE with 133 randomly selected members in seven sessions from June to November 2025, adopted 20 proposals on 23 November 2025, including a 9 a.m. school start for adolescents and a ban on social media before 15.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.