Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 01◇ Forecast · horizon 2020s–2030s
Strengthened states
Existing states absorb AI and digital infrastructure into administration, gaining capacity faster than new forms of governance can emerge.
Likelihood: Underway in placesDriversNear-universal AI adoption in OECD administrationsMature digital identity and data-exchange layersFiscal pressure to automate casework
Early indicatorsShare of public services fully digitalAdoption of mandatory evaluation for public-sector AICourt rulings on automated decisions
Claims this scenario depends onEstonia's X-Road data-exchange layer, in use since 2001, connects public and private databases so that services can exchange data securely.AI was used in at least one government function in 35 of the 36 OECD countries surveyed, but only 10 of the 36 reported any evaluation of these uses.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.