Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 10◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
Polycentric city networks
Cities gain fiscal and regulatory room and cooperate in networks that share policies, software and participatory methods, becoming a distinct layer of governance between states and global bodies.
Likelihood: Emerging (early signals observed)DriversUrbanisation and metropolitan economic weightOpen-source civic software shared between citiesDiffusion of participatory budgeting and assembliesNational deadlock pushing problems down to citiesCity networks on climate, migration and digital rights
Early indicatorsDevolution of fiscal and regulatory powers to metropolitan governmentsShare of city budgets decided through participatory processesJoint city procurement or standards for AI and dataNumber of institutions using shared civic platformsGaps in service quality between metropolitan and peripheral areas
Claims this scenario depends onTiebout argued that if people can move freely among many local jurisdictions, they will sort according to their preferred bundles of taxes and public goods.Decidim is free and open-source software and is used by public institutions beyond Barcelona.Porto Alegre introduced participatory budgeting in 1989, letting residents set priorities for part of the municipal investment budget through neighbourhood and thematic assemblies.In New York City's FY 2027 participatory budgeting cycle, nearly 130,000 residents of 22 Council districts voted between 11 and 19 April 2026 on almost $25 million, mostly capital funding; the Council called it the highest vote in 15 cycles since 2011.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.