Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 03◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
Network communities
Online communities take on more governance functions — shared treasuries, dispute resolution, even land — without territorial sovereignty.
Likelihood: Emerging (early signals observed)DriversLegal wrappers for DAOsRemote work and global digital servicesNetwork-state advocacy
Early indicatorsCommunities that persist beyond temporary gatheringsAny diplomatic recognition of a network communityDisputes resolved inside community institutions
Claims this scenario depends onSrinivasan defines a network state as a highly aligned online community with a capacity for collective action that crowdfunds territory around the world and eventually gains diplomatic recognition from pre-existing states.CityDAO organised as a Wyoming DAO LLC under the state's 2021 DAO law and acquired a parcel of land in Wyoming.Zuzalu was a two-month 'pop-up city' held in Montenegro in spring 2023.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.