Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 08◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
Algorithmic-administration backlash
Rights to human review, transparency registers and legal limits on automated decisions spread after documented failures, constraining how far administrations can automate.
Likelihood: PlausibleDriversDocumented harms from automated benefit and fraud systemsCourt rulings on automated decision-makingAlgorithm registers and high-risk AI rules
Early indicatorsEnforceable rights to human review of public decisionsCoverage and completeness of public algorithm registersCourts annulling decisions for unlawful automation
Claims this scenario depends onAI was used in at least one government function in 35 of the 36 OECD countries surveyed, but only 10 of the 36 reported any evaluation of these uses.In the Dutch childcare-benefits scandal, tax authorities wrongly treated thousands of families as fraudsters, partly through risk-scoring practices; the cabinet resigned in January 2021.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.