Idea
'Vote on values, bet on beliefs': elected bodies define a measure of welfare, and prediction markets decide which policies are expected to improve it.
Theory
Robin Hanson proposed futarchy around 2000. It relies on evidence that prediction markets often aggregate information well.
Real examples
- Some blockchain projects use conditional markets to select proposals.
- Corporate prediction markets have been used to forecast internal outcomes.
Critique
Markets can be manipulated, thin markets are noisy, and agreeing on a single welfare measure is itself highly political. Long-term effects are hard to price.
Results
No government uses futarchy. It remains a proposal with small on-chain trials.
Claims
Futarchy would have elected bodies define a measure of national welfare while prediction markets decide which policies are expected to raise it.[1]
Futarchy has not been tested as the governance system of any country or city; experiments have been limited to small online organisations.[1]
Revision history
- 2026-10-23rev 2 — Seed import
- 2026-10-23rev 1 — Seed import