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Article

The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959–1961

Xin Meng; Nancy Qian; Pierre Yared · Review of Economic Studies 82(4), 1568–1611 · 2015

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Type: Article
Author: Xin Meng; Nancy Qian; Pierre Yared
Identifier: DOI 10.1093/restud/rdv016
Accessed: 2026-09-01

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EstablishedExcess deaths in China's Great Leap Forward famine of 1959–61 are estimated at between 16.5 and 45 million, depending on assumptions and methods.TheoryDuring the famine, rural mortality was higher in regions with higher food production per person, a pattern explained by an inflexible procurement system that could not adjust to actual output.HypothesisFamines do not occur in functioning democracies with a free press and opposition parties, so China's lack of these institutions explains why the 1959–61 famine was allowed to continue.