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Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

Pavel Atanasov; Phillip Rescober; Eric Stone; et al. · Management Science 63(3), 691–706 · 2017

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Type: Article
Author: Pavel Atanasov; Phillip Rescober; Eric Stone; et al.
Identifier: DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374
Accessed: 2026-09-01

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TheoryIn a large geopolitical forecasting tournament, prediction market prices beat the simple mean of prediction polls, but team prediction polls outperformed the markets when forecasts were statistically aggregated, suggesting that well-designed polls are an attractive alternative to markets.