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Article

Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run

Joyce E. Berg; Forrest D. Nelson; Thomas A. Rietz · International Journal of Forecasting 24(2), 285–300 · 2008

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Type: Article
Author: Joyce E. Berg; Forrest D. Nelson; Thomas A. Rietz
Identifier: DOI 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007
Accessed: 2026-09-01

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EstablishedA review of the evidence reports that the Iowa Electronic Markets have outperformed large polling organisations; over four US presidential elections their final-week forecasts of vote shares erred by about 1.5 percentage points on average, against 2.1 points for the final Gallup poll.