Polity Atlas
Article

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Kenneth J. Arrow; Robert Forsythe; Michael Gorham; et al. · Science 320(5878), 877–878 · 2008

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Type
Article
Author
Kenneth J. Arrow; Robert Forsythe; Michael Gorham; et al.
Identifier
DOI 10.1126/science.1157679
Accessed
2026-09-01

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TheoryIn a large geopolitical forecasting tournament, prediction market prices beat the simple mean of prediction polls, but team prediction polls outperformed the markets when forecasts were statistically aggregated, suggesting that well-designed polls are an attractive alternative to markets.