Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 09◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s–2040s
Post-labour dividend states
As automation reduces the labour share of income, some states pay citizens regular dividends from collectively owned capital, resource rents or taxes on AI-driven profits, turning social contracts from wage-based to asset-based.
Likelihood: uncertainDriversFalling labour share of national income in AI-exposed sectorsConcentration of AI profits in a few firms and countriesPrecedents of resource dividends and sovereign wealth fundsTrial evidence of small work effects of unconditional cashPolitical demand for a share in returns to automation
Early indicatorsPublic equity stakes in AI or compute infrastructureEarmarked levies on automation, data or AI profitsConstitutional or statutory protection of dividend formulasSize and duration of new unconditional cash-transfer programmesLabour share in national accounts
Claims this scenario depends onAlaska has paid an annual Permanent Fund Dividend to eligible residents since 1982, funded from the earnings of the Alaska Permanent Fund.Whether a full universal basic income would reduce labour supply at scale is disputed, because existing trials are time-limited, partial or targeted.Proposed institutional responses to declining labour income include universal basic income and social dividends from collectively owned capital.AI-driven automation will reduce aggregate demand for human labour enough to require new income-distribution institutions in OECD countries by 2035.The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend was $1,000 in 2025, paid to 618,863 applicants, and $1,200 in 2026 including a $200 energy relief payment; the 2022 dividend was $3,284.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.