Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 02◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
New autonomies
More special jurisdictions, charter zones and negotiated autonomies emerge inside existing states.
Likelihood: PlausibleDriversCompetition for investmentSuccessful precedents of special economic zonesDemand for regulatory experimentation
Early indicatorsNew special-jurisdiction lawsCourt rulings on zone constitutionalityResident participation in zone governance
Claims this scenario depends onIn 2024 the Supreme Court of Honduras ruled the ZEDE framework, under which Próspera was created, unconstitutional.The DIFC, established in 2004, has its own civil and commercial laws and independent English-language common-law courts, separate from the UAE's civil-law system.Shenzhen was designated one of China's first Special Economic Zones in 1980.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.