Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 04◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s–2040s
Hybrids
Layered arrangements combine state, local, network and deliberative institutions, with people belonging to several at once.
Likelihood: PlausibleDriversInstitutionalisation of citizens' assembliesDigital services decoupled from residenceCommons and cooperative models in housing and work
Early indicatorsBinding outcomes from deliberative bodiesCross-border digital membership schemesGrowth of community land trusts and cooperatives
Claims this scenario depends onEstonian e-Residency provides a government-issued digital identity for accessing Estonian e-services, but does not grant citizenship, tax residency, a residence permit or the right of entry to Estonia or the EU.Ireland's 2016–2018 Citizens' Assembly comprised a chairperson and 99 randomly selected citizens; its recommendations on the Eighth Amendment preceded the 2018 referendum in which 66.4% voted for repeal.Community land trusts hold land in trust and sell homes with resale restrictions so that they stay affordable for later buyers.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.