Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 07◇ Forecast · horizon 2020s–2030s
Digital sovereignty stack
States build and operate their own identity, credential and data-exchange layers instead of relying on private platforms, making digital infrastructure a core attribute of statehood.
Likelihood: Underway in placesDriversPublic distrust of private identity providersMature national data-exchange layersVoluntary, state-run digital wallets
Early indicatorsUptake of state-issued digital identitiesCross-border recognition of digital identities and credentialsReferendum outcomes on e-ID and similar infrastructure
Claims this scenario depends onEstonian e-Residency provides a government-issued digital identity for accessing Estonian e-services, but does not grant citizenship, tax residency, a residence permit or the right of entry to Estonia or the EU.Estonia launched e-Residency in December 2014.Estonia's X-Road data-exchange layer, in use since 2001, connects public and private databases so that services can exchange data securely.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.