Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 14◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
Digital-commons infrastructure
Core digital infrastructure for public life, such as civic platforms, identity components, open data and open AI models, is built and governed as a commons by public bodies, cooperatives and communities rather than owned by platforms or states alone.
Likelihood: PlausibleDriversOpen-source civic platforms adopted across countriesPublic interest in avoiding vendor lock-inMechanisms for funding public goods such as quadratic fundingInternational attention to open models and dataCommons governance theory and practice
Early indicatorsProcurement rules preferring open-source componentsMulti-government consortia maintaining shared softwarePublic budgets for open-source maintenanceOpenly licensed AI models stewarded by public or non-profit bodiesGovernance charters for shared digital infrastructure
Claims this scenario depends onOstrom identified design principles shared by long-enduring common-pool resource institutions, including clearly defined boundaries, monitoring, graduated sanctions and low-cost conflict-resolution mechanisms.Estonia's X-Road data-exchange layer, in use since 2001, connects public and private databases so that services can exchange data securely.Decidim is free and open-source software and is used by public institutions beyond Barcelona.Gitcoin Grants has used quadratic funding, based on the mechanism of Buterin, Hitzig and Weyl, to match small donations to open-source projects since 2019.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.