Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 06◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
Deliberative turn
Randomly selected citizens' assemblies shift from one-off experiments to standing, formally anchored steps in how parliaments and governments prepare decisions.
Likelihood: Emerging (early signals observed)DriversFormal referral of assembly reports to parliamentary committeesPublished government responses to recommendationsPublic demand for participation beyond elections
Early indicatorsReferendums or laws that follow assembly recommendationsAssemblies with a statutory basis or standing rotating membershipShare of recommendations enacted rather than 'in progress'
Claims this scenario depends onDeliberative polls and citizens' assemblies select participants by random sampling so that the group resembles the wider population.Landemore argues for an 'open democracy' in which randomly selected, rotating assemblies of ordinary citizens play a central role alongside or instead of elected representatives.Ireland's 2016–2018 Citizens' Assembly comprised a chairperson and 99 randomly selected citizens; its recommendations on the Eighth Amendment preceded the 2018 referendum in which 66.4% voted for repeal.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.