Observatory · Scenario map
Futures of the state
Scenarios are tools for thinking, not predictions. Each lists its drivers and the early indicators that would make it more or less plausible. Several may unfold at once.
Power distributed ↑↓ Power concentratedTerritorialNetworked →
Positions are qualitative and editorial. Dashed outlines mark ◇ forecasts.Scenario 05◇ Forecast · horizon 2030s
AI-entrenched centralisation
Automated administration and surveillance concentrate power in whoever controls the systems, while weak evaluation and appeal leave errors and abuses uncorrected.
Likelihood: PlausibleDriversAI adoption outpacing evaluationOpaque automated decision systemsConcentration of data and compute
Early indicatorsRights to explanation and appeal for automated decisionsIndependent audits of public-sector AIIncidents of large-scale automated error
Claims this scenario depends onAI was used in at least one government function in 35 of the 36 OECD countries surveyed, but only 10 of the 36 reported any evaluation of these uses.In the Dutch childcare-benefits scandal, tax authorities wrongly treated thousands of families as fraudsters, partly through risk-scoring practices; the cabinet resigned in January 2021.
The central question is not “what replaces the nation-state?” but who holds power, and on what terms, when intelligence is no longer exclusively human.