“Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo and Robinson (2019) estimate, using a panel of countries from 1960 to 2010, that a country transitioning from non-democracy to democracy achieves about 20% higher GDP per capita over the following 25 years than one that remains a non-democracy, working through greater investment in capital, schooling and health.”

Context. The estimate is a causal claim from observational data; its size and robustness are contested.