Polity Atlas
05 · Future Observatory

Watching society transform

Research, technology shifts, AI governance, post-labour economics and digital statehood — each item tagged with its status and the claims it changes.

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Research

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2026-10-23ResearchAutomation, AI and jobs: what the evidence shows and what is still forecastRobots have had measurable local effects on jobs and wages; generative AI raises productivity in specific tasks; administrative data to mid-2026 show no economy-wide displacement but fewer young hires in exposed occupations. Claims about future mass unemployment remain forecasts.Disputed2026-10-22ResearchResource dividends and social wealth funds: lessons from Alaska, Norway, Iran and MongoliaAlaska pays every resident a dividend, Norway saves its oil wealth under a fiscal rule, Iran replaced subsidies with a universal transfer and Mongolia promised resource cash to all citizens. Dividends proved compatible with work, but they lasted only where payouts were tied to a rule-based draw from an accumulated fund.Established2026-10-21ResearchUS guaranteed income pilots: what Stockton, OpenResearch, Cook County and Baby's First Years foundUnconditional monthly cash eased hardship and short-term stress in US pilots, but the largest randomised trial found a modest fall in work and fading wellbeing gains, and a trial of cash for mothers of newborns found no effects on child development or health at age four.Established2026-10-20ResearchKenya's long-term basic income study: cash works, and how it is delivered mattersGiveDirectly's experiment in 295 Kenyan villages compares a 12-year basic income with a two-year stream and a lump sum. Two-year results show local business expansion, no fall in total work and lower depression; the lump sum matched the long-term stream on economic outcomes, while the short-term stream did less.Established2026-02-02ResearchWhat Finland's basic income experiment did — and did not — showUnconditional payments to unemployed people had small employment effects and improved wellbeing; the design cannot tell us what a universal scheme would do.Established2025-04-09ResearchGerman basic-income pilot: little labour-market withdrawal, better wellbeingA three-year German study of €1,200 monthly unconditional payments reported in April 2025 no significant withdrawal from work and clear gains in mental health and life satisfaction, in a small, selected sample.Established